RUSSIA IN SPACE: NEW COLD WAR OR NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION?
Opinion piece by Zsofi Szelpal
Humans have long dreamed of going to space, so it’s no surprise that it became an important arena of the Cold War. While fortunately posing no existential threat to humanity (unlike the nuclear arms race), televisions enabled ordinary people to be directly exposed to scientific exploration, along with the successes and the tragedies of the superpower competition. 104 years after Jules Verne’s book From the Earth to the Moon, the Apollo 11 crew successfully landed in 1969 as the world watched, writing America into popular history as the winners of the space race.
Russia’s history in space is nevertheless rich with milestones: launching the first Earth-orbiting satellite Sputnik 1 in 1957; then the first living organism Laika the dog; and Gagarin was the first human in space in 1961. By 1998, the International Space Station (ISS) was launched through the collaboration of NASA (US), Roscosmos (Russia), Japan, Canada and Europe, illustrating the potential for a new 21st century world order based on multinational cooperation. However, Russia may soon be exiting from this collaboration, reflecting the instability and deterioration of the post-Cold War system (Guardian, 2021). The former Soviet Union and Russia are still crucial, even essential players in paving the way and shaping the future of men in outer space (BBC, 2021). Whether freshly rising competitiveness - not just with the US, but also with China, SpaceX, and other countries and corporations - will speed up the development of new technologies and partnerships, or result in a new Cold War space race is yet to be seen. So where does Russia stand in a changing world where Elon Musk might be the winner?
Let’s start from the beginning. Although public fascination and state spending on space agencies is nowhere near the 1950s-1970s level, it is still important for nations despite the wide selection of existential problems to pick from on Earth. Why is space so significant and what makes it suitable for competition (and cooperation)? Among the purest of motivations, or rather the best outcomes, is scientific exploration, technological development, and plenty of positive benefits trickling down to civilians, such as GPS, memory foam and high quality food packaging (NASA Center for AeroSpace Information, 2008). If humans dreamed of space just out of scientific curiosity, multinational cooperation would only advance such a rosy picture, right? That’s when politics and profit come into the picture: the prospects of space tourism and rising geopolitical tensions will no doubt drive Russia’s space policy and alliances in the coming years.
Russian Space Tech
Soviet space technology is famous for its simplicity and reliability: the Soyuz spacecraft was developed in 1968, and continued to be used as the primary taxi to the ISS until today, highlighting Russian engineers’ ability to produce superior results from fewer resources available (Hollingham, 2014). Today, many of the Soviet technologies serve as the basis for upgrades and inventions.
The Cold War era showed that although spending is highly indicative of a nation’s investment in space, it nevertheless requires caution when assessing their success and influence on cosmic matters. Two decades after the collapse of the USSR, Russia’s total space budget climbed back up and was only preceded by the US and China in 2013, and it remains the country with the highest share of GDP spent on Roscosmos (OECD, 2014). There are numerous active space programmes relating to navigation, communication and early missile warning, as well as the development of anti-satellite missiles - where a recent test triggered international critique, - demonstrating Russia’s ability to keep up with other space powers militarily (BBC, 2021; Chatham House, 2021) .
On the other hand, Elon Musk’s SpaceX has taken over the launch business, replacing Soyuz as the cheapest way to reach the ISS with its even cheaper seat prices of $55 million, compared to Soyuz’s $86 million (O'Callaghan, 2020). While simplicity and reliability remain a key strength of Russian technology, innovation is indispensable for competitiveness and the reduction of launch costs which are currently spearheaded by SpaceX (Jones, 2018). The question for the future is whether Russia will manage to adapt and innovate in an industry heavily reliant on the foreign import of specialist parts in the face of deteriorating relations with the West, like it has done so successfully in other sectors, and take advantage of the space industry’s expansion driven by companies (Chatham House, 2021; Foy, 2020; Handmer, 2021)
Space Tourism
Japanese billionaire Maezawa is the most recent tourist to have travelled to the ISS in Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft, as the growing trend of space tourism is driven by commercial giants such as SpaceX and Blue Origin (BBC, 2021). These new actors do not only fulfill the childhood dreams of the rich in a simplified - cheaper, less time-consuming, barely outer space - version of tourism originally pioneered by Russia, but also attract state business, lowering the demand for Russian space travel. NASA’s seats on the Soyuz provided significant income to Roscosmos before SpaceX took over most transportation to the ISS. As such, the lost profit will likely be recovered by reviving the longer and more authentic tourist experience offered by Soyuz and the ISS, and declared by space chief Rogozin to be a high priority area that Russia is “willing to fight for” in the face of American dominance (France 24, 2021).
Space Politics
Space was the perfect setting for propaganda during the Cold War, reaching scientific, theological and nationalistic spheres of society, both Soviet and American (Froggat, 2006). By the 1970s, the portrayal of humans in space turned from competition into cooperation, emphasising peace and progress that benefits all mankind (Rockwell, 2012). Today, Russian discourse on space aligns neatly with the wider foreign policy mentality of independence, multipolarity and looking out for the national interest: plans for a Russian space station after departing the ISS; developing defensive and potentially disrupting systems; and allying with China on planned missions, even a joint Lunar research base, all demonstrate a turn away from relying on cooperation with the West, while regaining the Great Power status once held by the Soviet Union (Azarova, 2021; BBC, 2021).
Concerns over the lack of cooperation come down to the threat of space weaponisation: the anti-satellite missile test alarmed the international community, as Russia can hold other states’ assets at risk, and as only nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction are prohibited by the UN Outer Space Treaty (Chatham House, 2021; United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, n.d.). Wouldn’t it give nations a peace of mind to just not have weapons in space at all? In 2014, Russia and China proposed a Treaty on the Prevention of Placement of Weapons in Outer Space at the Conference on Disarmament that has not seen implementation yet (Chatham House, 2021). Clearly, there is Russian interest in constraining the use of force and minimising threat in space, but the West has greater, down-to-Earth security concerns relating to Russia at the moment. Space is nevertheless a relatively safe place for power projection - at least until there are no accidents from the debris.
Future Implications
The returning Cold War rhetoric applies to space tourism and the weaponisation of space just as much, if not more, as to current geopolitical tensions. But there is a crucial difference: space is a blank slate for humans, where a lot has already been achieved in multinational collaboration compared to Earth. As old and new actors, states and companies increase their presence while drifting further apart, there will be a growing need to establish common rules and treaties, which Russia will be an essential part of and has expressed willingness to work towards. In 1975, the handshake between the crews of Soyuz and Apollo in space symbolised improving relations as the Cold War race came to an end; and similarly, space may become the testing ground for multinational cooperation and human progress in the future - both in space and on Earth -, albeit with a more nationalistic character for now.
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