A FROZEN CONFLICT TURNED HOT

All Roads Lead to Beijing

The many sanctions mounting on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine have proved unable to cripple the country’s wartime economy. Despite this, Russia must re-orient herself and look for investment elsewhere in order to survive in the global economy. Although China and India are two obvious alternatives with massive economies of their own, Russia must search for new trade routes to use and capitalise from. The Arctic provides the best possible chance of growth and economic security in this regard. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the name of the maritime passage which Russia has established, and it is the important artery connecting ports in Russia to those in China. Though sub-zero temperatures make traversing this passage treacherous, and can be off-putting to some countries, it has a promising future as a trade route. For example, the volume of trade passing through the NSR has rocketed between the years 2014 and 2022, with an increase of around 755 per cent  [9] (Economist, 2024). Whilst increased investment from Russia and China in the NSR has led to its greater use in recent years, it is climate change which is responsible for making the Arctic ready to accommodate international trade.

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For the Kremlin, the NSR will rival the Suez Canal as a commercial shipping route, since it can reduce the voyage length from Europe to Asia by 4,000 nautical miles (McCann, 2023)[10]. Moreover, according to the World Economic Forum, the journey of trade from Europe to Asia via the NSR would last for only 18 days, giving it an extremely competitive edge against both the Suez and Panama canals. For all the security and cost guarantees that the Russian Federation may boast of the NSR, it is the changing climate which transforms the Arctic into a commercial reality. Most importantly, Russia has sole discretion over who gets to use this route, which has initiated an array of Western sanctions on companies that use the NSR  [11] (Economist). It is likely this will ignite further tension between Russia and the West as the NSR is extremely lucrative for Russia’s economy and GDP. Importantly, it is owing to climate change that the accessibility of the NSR for commercial purposes is increasingly more promising, transforming a once geographic barrier into a viable trade route.  

Following the recent wave of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal the security of this maritime passageway falls into question  [12] (Economist), whereas the NSR appears firmly within the grip of Russian control. The NSR therefore shows signs of being a potential threat to the West over the future of commercial shipping. Though sanctions once stymied Russian progress on major infrastructure works to improve and promote this trade route, such concerns have partially faded due to increased Chinese investment in the project. According to The Economist, China has invested over $90bn in both infrastructure and assets in the Arctic  [13]. Although the ‘Polar Silk Road’ may be a threat to Russian domination of much of the Arctic, for now it helps keep Russia afloat, and provides Moscow with an alternative economic partnership to that of European countries. It is largely because of the NSR that Moscow’s interest in the Arctic has been rekindled, and this route makes the Russian need to keep the Arctic secure a greater strategic imperative than ever before.  

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